Why COVID-19 death predictions will be much less
'U.S. peak will be next week,' says Dr. Peter Hotez, explaining why COVID-19 death models will drop significantly in May
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In America, after the coronavirus, getting back to a sense of normalcy will be an "up and down" process spanning years, Dr. Peter Hotez, dean for the National School of Tropical Medicine, said Tuesday.
Appearing on "America's Newsroom" with host Ed Henry, Hotez said that the current hope is that the country will get out of the woods as models show a "pretty steep decline" in cases through the month of May.
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"The other big trend we are looking for is what happens as the numbers start to decline as most of the models suggest we move into the summer. What do the out years look like? A year from now or two years from now," he added. "And, the reason I bring that up is we have information for things like pandemic flu which, for instance, the 1918 flu epidemic -- many people don't realize that we actually say that going to 1919 and 1920. So, it lasted two or three years."
"So, how are we going to operate the country now with the possibility that it may come back in the fall or this time again next year?" he asked. "And, that is going to really require careful thought."
Hotez told Henry that right now America is enduring the "eye of the hurricane." However, the other side is "just as bad as the first part" which is why it's important to continue to take preventative measures as the number of cases decline.
"As I've mentioned, a lot of projections are saying that this is not a one-off thing. We're going to be dealing with this virus...for at least a couple of years," he stated further. "It won't be anything nearly as bad as what we are dealing with right now. But, it will likely come back either later in the fall or early next year and we're going to have to figure out how to manage this and whether we go again into social distancing for parts of the country or whether we have new technologies."
"So, this generation is going to talk about this like my grandparents talked about the 1918 flu pandemic. It's going to have that big of an impact, but we are managing it and that's what we have to realize..." Hotez said. "It's going to be pieces of technology [that] will roll out. We will be having to go up and down and ebb and flow over the next couple of years."
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"But, we will get through it," he concluded.
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